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If You Could Turn Back Time, Would You Play the Market Differently? Would You Marry Your Spouse Again? + Lee’s take on C, GM, MGM, AA, BAC, BA, ETFC, WYNN, GE, WMT, NWS, BBY, MRK, AAPL, and PSA

 

 
 


InvestorsObserver Featured Contributor
Lee M. Allen





After a year of being pounded in the stock market, it might be interesting to think about the what-if scenarios. What-if eighteen months ago you shorted stocks like Citigroup (C), General Motors (GM), MGM Mirage (MGM), Alcoa (AA), Bank Of America (BAC), Boeing (BA), or E*Trade Financial (ETFC)?

I’ll tell you what, you would be sloppy rich. I don’t mean just upgrade-to-a-mansion-and-get-a-fleet-of-new-cars rich. I’m not talking pay-someone-else-to-take-out-your-garbage-and-wash-your-dishes rich. I’m talking private-jet-with-your-initials-on-the-tail rich.  I’m talking personal-thank-you-note-from-the-fine-people-at-the-Internal-Revenue-Service rich.

Way back when, if you shorted these stocks or even were smarter and bought some put option on just one of these losers, chances are you would be reading this right now from a comfortable seat on your own private island. Maybe your own private country.

But that didn’t happen, did it?  Along with most other investors, you thought the market would rebound earlier instead of way later, if at all. You though things would get better before wiping out a few large cap


US Treasury auditors removing toxic assets from Bank Of America

companies and taking down most of what was the investment banking industry. For a lot of people, their main investing strategy over the last eighteen months has been to simply not look at their brokerage statements or online accounts. That strategy works until you start getting final notices from your kid’s college that tuition is due.

But I think I might have found a way to go back in time and make the one investment that could set you up for life…

Read on for more of Lee’s insights into ways to go back and make smarter investments the second time around...

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I usually don’t like to pull out numbers to make my point. Mainly because I am prone to math errors. Especially when it comes to those annual income tax forms.

But try this on for size… Let’s look at one stock: Wynn Resorts (WYNN). A few months back, when this stock was peaking at over $110 a share, you probably could have bought a Put Option for around 10 cents a share. So you take the family fortune of $10,000 and buy 1,000 contracts of these puts. Each contract is equal to 100 shares of stock, so you would control 100,000 shares of Wynn Resorts.


Why play in the casino when you can play the stock for a real win?

These days, Wynn Resorts stock has dropped from over $110 a share to around $60. When I checked how much you could get for your 110 puts, it was around $68 a share. That means you would have turned your $10,000 investment into $6.8 million – a tidy little profit; but check my math since the summer interns have not arrived yet and usually they are the ones who check this kind of stuff. I haven’t had a decent cup of office coffee since last summer either.

There’s one little catch to this brilliant investment strategy…

Did you ever notice how you never really know which stocks will go up or down? To make this work, you need to know the ones about to make really big moves. Looking back at the last year, you could have picked about any stock to short or play with put options and been a big winner.  By big winner, I mean amassed enough money so you would need to use an offshore tax haven like Exxon Mobil (XOM), General Electric (GE), or Wal-Mart (WMT).

The trick to make this work is to know which stocks are going to move the most and get your trade in when those stocks are at their highs or lows.


I know this seems real simple, but when you look a little closer you realize this is a bigger deal than it sounds.  You may think all you need to do is listen to those guys on those cable TV business shows or read the Wall Street Journal – published by News Corp. (NWS) - to find out which stocks are going to move. But if you really pay attention, you will realize they don’t really know either. Mostly they are just blabbering and every now and then they yell out a stock name at random, much unlike the hard information you get from my columns.

With all this money and that private jet at stake, you would think someone could solve this knowing which stocks are going to move and when problem….

As a diligent journalist, that’s when I started working my contacts. I called around to a few places like NASA, The National Science Foundation, and Best Buy (BBY) to see if they had any idea on how a person could sort of know ahead of time which stocks were going up or down.


What could the government really be developing in this building?
Could this be the reason the Swine Flu outbreak stopped so quickly?


Of course, as you might expect, NASA and the National Science Foundation were pretty tight lipped when I hinted at the existence of some type of time travel device.  They acted like they didn’t know anything about it. How do you think they snuffed this Swine Flu pandemic so fast? They sent someone back to find patient Zero and put them in isolation before too many other people could catch it. It wasn’t a drug company like Merck (MRK) that saved the day this time.


Could this be an early rough prototype of the
Apple iTimeTraveler?

I called Apple (AAPL) to see if they were working on some type of iTimeTraveler. Once again, no one would talk. But I’m sure their Time Travel device, when it is or is not released at the next Apple Lovefest, will be extremely thin and stylish, have WiFi, GPS, a non-removable battery, and be very expensive.

It turned out the guy at Best Buy was the most help. He referred me to a recent documentary film called “Primer” that shows all the steps some Silicon Valley engineering-type researchers took to create a crude yet workable time machine. It was crude because they could not secure any venture capital even after proving the device worked by sending a hamster back in time.

I watched the documentary and was fascinated by the way they set up their time travel machine in a storage locker at a Public Storage (PSA) facility somewhere in the San Francisco Bay area. Two of the engineers made copious notes on current stock prices then they went back in time, invested in those stocks, and got rich. Well, as you might expect, a few complications did arise, but that’s what the fast-forward button is for on your DVD player. Who needed to see that anyway?  The fact is that they went back in time, invested in the stock market and made bundles of money. Who cares if they may have slightly jarred the space-time continuum and had some slight bleeding from their ears and eyes. Sometimes you gotta break the rules.

I was pretty skeptical, but this was no flashy Hollywood film like “Back To the Future” or “Groundhog Day”. This was a rough and tumble documentary. At least that’s what the guy at Best Buy said before he sold me his personal copy for $50.

My first reaction was that this time travel stuff could not be possible. But if you went back one hundred short years and told people we could talk to each other over great distances on a device the size of a wallet, they would think you were nuts. If you told people a hundred years ago that a man could circle the globe three times in less than five hours like John Glenn did on February 20, 1962, they would laugh at you. If you told people a hundred years ago that the US government would be bazillions of dollars in debt, mostly to Chinese and Middle Eastern Governments, they would have locked you up.  So why couldn’t these smart engineers from Silicon Valley build a time-travel device in a Public Storage locker and go back in time to make a killing in the stock market?

Unfortunately, even with the convenience of a slim, stylish iTimeTraveler in our pockets, we would probably just make a batch of new mistakes. And that bleeding from the ears and eyes thing seems like something worth calling tech support about.


Poster for that documentary on how those guys built the time travel machine without venture capital financing


If you have any better thoughts on ways to play the market or go back in time, please e-mail me at LeeAllen@InvestorsObserver.com.

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